Neither of these points feel true anymore.
Models are very much predictable these days (except anthropic models). The real issue stems from letting them work on their own for far too long. Also we are not controlled by 2 companies anymore as kimi k3, deepseek flash (and soon pro) as the ultra-cheap variants, glm 5.2 especially is a direct replacement for opus 4.8.
Models will only get better and cheaper I wouldn't feel too pessimistic and wouldn't feel too bad on relying on them to accelerate work and free up mental space from menial tasks.
As a personal side-note I never let my agents do architectual design I only use them for implementing. I always found the actual coding part of programming extremely boring and coming up with designs, experimenting and testing the fun part.
I always found that if you are good enough at whittling down boilerplate that coding becomes something akin to pure architecture.
I find that mediocre programmers and LLMs are bad at both. They're helpful if you want to shit out some repetitive boilerplate or perform a complex search of some kind but otherwise you're better off without.
Even if I was paid for using LLMs I would still find the experience nightmarish. I really don’t want to be dependent on such a system and spend my time managing fleets