And eventually that arbitrage will be big enough to justify a pumped hydro/gravity/iron-air storage.
Pumped storage utility is tied to duty cycle. You want one cycle per day with some overage, not one cycle per year. A lot of the cost scales with storage volume.
If you look at the pumped storage projects built and under construction in China, they are all daily focused.
Large-scale battery storage is already expanding rapidly, and is way cheaper than pumped storage.
Except the water is in short supply, so where's that magically coming from? The Great Salt Lake is shrinking and specific to Utah. Just look at Lake Meade and Hoover Dam as an example.
Doubtful, the tradeoff is solar cost versus storage cost. Pumped hydro and gravity are waaaaaaaay too expensive compared to excess solar panels. Pumped hydro takes massive construction projects, which are very very expensive these days. Gravity storage (non-water, meaning non-hydro) never made any sense at all, the material costs are just way too high.
Iron-air storage is still being proven out, but it still requires so much material that only getting 1-2 cycles per year just won't justify it, because electricity is going to be so cheap.
It's hard to overstate how cheap solar panels are these days. Even in the US, which has costs 3x-5x the rest of the world because of failed protective tariffs.