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card_zerotoday at 8:55 PM2 repliesview on HN

Huh? The point is that the two graphs come out looking the same, making the original no more meaningful than random.

Source code is here: https://github.com/pem725/Dunning-Kruger (found here: https://pem725.github.io)


Replies

5555watchtoday at 9:13 PM

Thanks for finding the code!

Now it's much more clear. The simulated data tries generating the true relationship between actual and perceived scores from 0.0 to 1.0, and bias in self-reporting from 0% to 100%.

So the output graph should be the average of all these data generating processes, yielding perceived relationship around 0.5 and bias around 50%, with some high variation.

If you have the access, run their Shiny code with these values, and you will see the published plot.

I'd argue that this demonstration is much weaker than "making original no more meaningful than random". It's more that the "simulated 50% bias and 0.5 true correlation looks similar to what DK published", which is also far fetched given the data generation they did.

Note: true random (what they were going for) would cover negative relationships, yielding the random true relationship around 0; and if they wouldn't correct the sign of Bias, it would also average at around 0; yielding a realistic "random" with the slope hovering about 50% for any percentile.

oulipotoday at 9:17 PM

Except "two graphs look the same" in no way means "therefore the results are equivalent"

The article is baseless and fluffy