logoalt Hacker News

JackFrtoday at 9:07 PM1 replyview on HN

Yeah - I kept looking for the meat of the argument. The graph of random data looks a little correlated and I’d love to know why.

That being said I loved the mercury/Glasgow explanation. Anecdotally I see that all the time.


Replies

Jenssontoday at 10:02 PM

The graph of random data looks like that since its capped. The first place person cannot overestimate his position, and the bottom place person cannot underestimate his position. So any randomness at all will replicate the effect unless there is much more overconfidence in the high achievers than low achievers.