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throwaway27448today at 9:21 PM4 repliesview on HN

Sigmoidal, not exponential. It would be insane to assume an exponential curve


Replies

scarmigtoday at 11:02 PM

Everything has limits, of course. But if you've not yet seen a deceleration, it's reasonable to expect that at the least you're in the middle of the sigmoid, not the top.

subygantoday at 10:32 PM

in the absence of a stalling signal. it's better to assume exponential and work backwards than hope the next bottleneck is impossible.

bryan0today at 9:44 PM

this gets more nuanced because "the sigmoids won't save you": https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/the-sigmoids-wont-save-you

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