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an0maloustoday at 5:28 PM1 replyview on HN

He said:

> I am hypothesizing that for OpenAI to survive for longer than two years, it will have to (in no particular order):

And listed various things like a technological breakthrough or more fundraising. I would bet he’s right that they’ll fundraise by the end of the year if they can’t IPO and pass the bag to retail investors.

What the AI bulls don’t seem to understand is that AI could be a great technological achievement AND an impending economic collapse because the valuations of these companies are absurd, basically requiring them to fulfill 10% of the country’s GDP within the next couple years. The achievements are impressive but vastly outpaced by the mania.


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no_multitudestoday at 5:55 PM

For the record, I agree that the generative AI industry might collapse. But I think Ed Zitron is ideologically committed to this belief in a way that is not a reflection of the evidence, and doesn't seem to update this belief based on new evidence.

>What the AI bulls don’t seem to understand is that AI could be a great technological achievement AND an impending economic collapse

This doesn't seem to be Ed Zitron's position, though. He is always minimizing the use cases of AI, and seems to think virtually all of the demand is due to the technology industry manufacturing consent.

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