>In july 2024, Zitron wrote at length about how the economics of OpenAI were likely to collapse in the next 1 to 2 years [1].

One of my clearest memories of the first tech bubble was of a number of people who accurately identified that it WAS a bubble and then predicted it would go pop 12-18 months before it did.

They attracted plenty of scorn and derision for being 80% right from people who were 100% wrong.

Some also lost a bunch of money - short selling really explodes in your face if you time it badly. It's not enough to know that it is a bubble, you have to be able to know when market sentiment will finally turn which is a gigantic gamble.