alt Hacker NewsSo some value, but how much value? You clearly don't like the idea there are some businesses in the AI mix that will continue making money and/or diversify their divisions to cover for any losses they suffer during this hypothetical crash or I wouldn't be getting downvoted for it. META, for example, is running a gross margin of 80% or so right now. You really think they're in trouble?
So really, after all of these companies are wiped off the map because the bubble popped and they went broke, what will be left? Let's get specific here. Let's make some hard falsifiable predictions.
I predict bumpy IPOs for Anthropic and OpenAI, maybe even ending in acquisition instead. I predict anything with a PE over 100 is in trouble. But I also predict anyone with a PE of 40 or less is going to be just fine. Like Michael Burry said, just like Cisco, now running a PE in the high 30s after going through some things. Finally, coding agents are here to stay and they will only get better and cheaper, but they are unlikely to replace common sense meatbags.
So what are your predictions?
> You clearly don't like the idea there are some businesses in the AI mix that will continue making money and/or diversify their divisions to cover for any losses they suffer during this hypothetical crash or I wouldn't be getting downvoted for it.
Me? I didn't downvote you for it and you are projecting a lot onto me without a sound basis.
Either way, my predictions are all personal, because as someone with his own problems I don't really have the spare energy to give a fuck what happens to the US economy or its tech industry. In practice for the rest of the world, I think it will all be dwarfed by the USA's failings in the Strait of Hormuz.
Though as a man in his fifties who has spent his life in the tech industry, I am slightly invested in the possibility of Larry Ellison's humiliation. Bring that on.