He doesn't need AI background to commentate on financials. Your post reads like a personal attack. His record talking about stock market doesn't matter either. There is about 0 information in anyone talking about what stock market is going to do.

So his point is that big % of cloud revenue of Microsoft/Google/Amazon come from companies that:

1)are very unprofitable

2)need to raise staggering amount of capital to survive

3)are financed by their suppliers and that money is circling back to them

Your counter-argument is this:

>> It truly doesn't matter whether closed source Frontier lab models are spewing tokens or large foreign open weight models are doing it, the token factories will be just fine, and that's really all I care about.

This might be true but there are 2 majors questions here. One is exposure to Anthropic/OpenAI. If they go bust/can't IPO at expected price it's a big loss hyperscalars will need to admit. The second question is how much of that cloud revenue comes from training. This part of the demand is going shrink or disappear in the bad scenario.