alt Hacker News>It's not wish casting whatever that means. The crux of the argument isn't as much of a capability one as it is an economic one. If China can release open source models like these to displace demand for frontier models so can American companies. It's just that it's not profitable enough for them to do so at this time.
I would back you if:
1) The American companies had not run up debts in the $100bn range. 2) If there was an open source business model that could create $100bn companies or pay down $100bn of debt. 3) There was a convincing moat such as a social media network effect - I mean that lasted 10 years or so for Meta - or ways for them to create a supplier based monopoly like MS did with IBM, Dell, Compaq,.. or Google has with Samsung and Apple. I think that it might be that the consumer use case could yet be tied to Samsung and Apple, so Google might do it again, but ATM I dunno if consumer use cases are the thing here.
>Do I believe you, or do I believe the people with trillions at stake. I believe the folks actually doing the work and with money at stake. I have yet to find a convincing argument otherwise.
Go look at SpaceX's shareprice.
You are being taken for a ride.
> 1) The American companies had not run up debts in the $100bn range.
How are Chinese companies financing their buildouts of AI infrastructure?
> 2) If there was an open source business model that could create $100bn companies or pay down $100bn of debt.
Companies are formed and consult on Linux for example. Idk where this $100bn number comes from but it seems too low to me anyway.
> 3) There was a convincing moat such as a social media network effect
Well you don't need a moat to be a successful business. But maybe the moat is that the models are just more capable. We're in the very early stages of this stuff from what I can tell.
> Go look at SpaceX's shareprice.
This is a bad argument. Share prices rise and fall all the time with or without material concerns. It can be snowing and folks will sell shares just because. Also SpaceX's share price (not that I'm an investor) doesn't really move the needle relative to the scale of the market or the AI companies involved.
> You are being taken for a ride.
How do you know folks aren't taking you for a ride instead?