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renegade-ottertoday at 2:43 PM4 repliesview on HN

The numbers are as good as they can get with hard manual work that goes into compiling them.

The problem is that small businesses lag by 1-2 months reporting them, so the initial number being reported is almost always irrelevant, as it mostly applies to numbers coming out of larger corporations.


Replies

jstanleytoday at 2:43 PM

> The numbers are as good as they can get

That doesn't mean they don't warrant error bars.

Error bars aren't there to show that you didn't do a good job collecting the data, they're there to show your level of uncertainty.

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jmalickitoday at 3:00 PM

That's true for the establishment survey, but the population survey, where they contact individuals, is what is actually used to calculate these numbers.

It is literally calling/writing 60,000 people and asking "are you employed? did you look for a job? Etc."

"How the government calculates unemployment" [0]

| Does anyone in this household have a business or a farm? | Last week, did you do any work for (either) pay (or profit)? | If the answer to question 1 is "yes" and the answer to question 2 is "no," the next question is: | Last week, did you do any unpaid work in the family business or farm? | For those who reply "no" to both questions 2 and 3, the next key questions used to determine employment status are: | Last week, (in addition to the business) did you have a job, either full or part time? Include any job from which you were temporarily absent. | Last week, were you on layoff from a job? | What was the main reason you were absent from work last week? | For those who respond "yes" to question 5 about being on layoff, the following questions are asked:

[0] https://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm

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jm4today at 3:00 PM

What makes you think it's small businesses? I would assume most businesses doing any reporting at all are using a payroll system. Mine handles the reporting automatically. The kinds of payroll systems used by small businesses can be set up in a day. If anything, small businesses that make even a small effort to stay on top of things have an easier time than big ones with complicated systems and processes.

pgwhalentoday at 2:58 PM

I think you say “as good as they can get with [the] hard manual work that goes into compiling them” as a way to respect the challenge of the BLS and say they’re doing the best with their resources, but it’s worth pointing out they could be better with more resources.

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