Turns out the Spokane wildfire was arson initiated. While Kalshi and PM have bets going on wildfire predictions.

I don't think there's a smoking Molotov there yet, but the incentives sure don't seem great!

Doesn't seem a huge leap there. Nor does a pissed off janitor who could turn $100 into $1,000 by trashing the wrong samples. Or a bigger player who can turn their $500k into $5M by paying that janitor $1,000.