alt Hacker NewsWas it fudging expected numbers (forecast), or fudging actual numbers (revenue, etc)?
VCs are looking for a long-tail, if you have a 1% chance at 5B - 1T market, this is more interesting and impactful than 10% chance at 5M market.
And yes, 1% chance of success is considered to be unrealistic by common sense standards.
Replies
aliasxneo • today at 6:18 PM
From my experience they wanted you to demonstrate enough metrics that would have justified NOT ever getting VC funding. It feels like they are just becoming lazy.
satvikpendem • today at 5:57 PM
Ergodicity. For you as an individual startup it is low but a VC looks at a portfolio and at a given size it is almost guaranteed to win.
IME, it's about pushing you to overextend on the forecast, so that when you don't meet it, they get more control or claw back funds promised or given.
Fudging actual numbers is a dangerous and illegal game to play and never pays off, except in the edge cases (e.g., Enron... but usually you have to pay the Piper).