With the business model for API based LLMs looking iffy at best it seems like we’re heading back to the “server under your desk” era of IT again.
What do you mean iffy? The major AI labs are gross profitable when selling access to inference. In addition, the best models have trillions of parameters and are most efficiently served on large, expensive clusters and served to many concurrent users.
That’s part of it. There’s also just a natural back-and-forth between what I call “time sharing” and “personal.” When the thing you want is expensive, you share it remotely, but as soon as costs fall, everyone wants it under their desk.
I've been coding using the LLM server in my living room for the past few weeks, and I haven't had this much fun with tech for ages
With how expensive consumer hardware is and will continue getting (due to LLM demand), good luck getting a "server under your desk" for something less than an arm, leg, and first born.
Until A100 prices are reliably under 1.70$ an hour, there is no GPU/AI bubble and Michael Burry doesn't know anything about GPUs.
Considering how all the big players are playing fast [1] and loose [2] with limits, billing [3] and adding undisclosed changes that burn your tokens on autopilot [4], it can't happen soon enough.
[1]: Limits may change without notice, including due to capacity constraints. - https://support.google.com/gemini/answer/16275805?sjid=14713....
[2]: "standard limits" are never defined - https://support.google.com/gemini/answer/16275805?sjid=14713...
[3]: https://tobyonfitnesstech.com/blog/anthropic-refund-scam/
[4]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48947776