alt Hacker NewsI wonder if this kind of analysis will give us a way to check if the frontier labs are waiting for the right moment to release their models. To me it feels obvious that these companies are not releasing models as soon as they are done doing their post training / testing with any new model.
But there is no real way to know how much of this "waiting" any lab is doing, if we can get better estimates this way maybe we can gauge how far the open weights models really are.
Replies
theplumber • today at 6:12 PM
It’s also worth to say that developers in general always have one more thing to fix before a release but if their hand is forced they can push it straight into main!
Given how competitive the space is any form of waiting seems like it has more downside than upside to me.
If you have the new "best" model you may only have a few weeks of time in the market before some other lab releases a new model that beats yours.
This means you should get it out ASAP so you can maximize the time during which your model is "best". Once your model isn't best any more you're going to lose a lot of revenue to the new leader.