alt Hacker NewsYou mean a good amount of the 46% consumed by road transports. So my napkin says, when we all switch to driving EV the oil demand will drop by 15%. It's something for sure, but not overly dramatic (to me).
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Every 24 months of EV production in China destroys 1 million barrels a day of global oil demand, as of this comment, at current rates of EV production. We should expect these rates of production will continue to increase. Total annual light vehicle sales are ~90M units. Globally, over 1-in-5 (22%) of new cars sold were electric in 2024. This share was 92% in Norway, and in China, it was almost 50%. In 2025, it was 1-in-4 (25%). The world has 20-30M units/year of EV manufacturing capacity, as of this comment. Light vehicles and heavy vehicles are solved for with battery electric, I argue, based on all available data.
Aviation and petrochemical use cases are unlikely to disappear in our lifetimes, but that is a small slice of today's oil demand (lets call it ~15-20% for the sake of argument), and will be the remainder as renewables and batteries eat global energy demand. ~40% of marine shipping disappears when you're not moving energy around the world, the remaining half can burn renewable energy produced ammonia or methanol for fuel. Like bankruptcy, the change happens slowly, and then all of a sudden. China now has more power than OPEC because of the facts in this comment and their vast strategic petroleum reserves.
It is understandable to say "this flywheel is spinning slowly" before it is spinning very fast, while you're watching it spool.
How China became the world’s great oil power - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49238158 - August 2026
Laos went 100% electric vehicles overnight with a drastic approach [Bans Fossil-Fuel Car Imports] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49040819 - July 2026
Electric Vehicle Sales Boom as Ethiopia Bans Fossil-Fuel Car Imports - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47068567 - February 2026
Norway EV sales and related data - https://robbieandrew.github.io/EV/
Our World In Data: Tracking global data on electric vehicles - https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales
Global oil price stuck in triple digits. Goldman Sachs says it may stay there for years - https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/20/energy/oil-gas-prices-intl-hn... - March 20th, 2026
Electric Cars Pass a Crucial Tipping Point in 23 Countries - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-28/electric-... | https://archive.today/e8XSt - August 27th, 2023
Almost 40% Of All Ship Cargoes Are Oil, Coal And Gas - https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2022/01/12/almost-40-... - January 12th, 2022
https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/rmt2019_en...
Trucks and buses are starting to be electrified as well. Some boating as well but that‘s a rounding error.