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zarzavattoday at 9:16 AM2 repliesview on HN

That makes them at best temporary middlemen.

It only justifies their long term valuations if they can leverage that temporary monopoly for technological superiority (they can't) or lasting market share (they can't).

Chinese models prove there's no technical advantage, and the software side is heavily commoditized so there's not much advantages to market share either.


Replies

regularfrytoday at 9:43 AM

The question mark in my mind over the technological superiority is whether the additional volume of data they see due to capturing the top of the market allows them to do recursive self-improvement in a way nobody else can match, before any of the other labs can figure it out. That's the only runaway outcome I can see.

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applicativetoday at 11:59 AM

The Chinese models are adopting licensing quite rapidly and Xi will soon enough close them for security reasons. The most widely used model, integrated across Bytedance apps and operations, has never been open and is most closely associated with the state.