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mono442today at 7:20 PM3 repliesview on HN

It's rising because the market expects interest rate hikes. Long-term bonds are basically a prediction market for future interest rates.


Replies

adjejmxbdjdntoday at 8:54 PM

The 30 year isn’t as affected by interest rate hikes unless the market is signaling it sees long term inflation despite interest rate hikes.

The 30 year should reflect more fundamental issues.

adam_arthurtoday at 9:14 PM

30y is keyed to inflation expectations.

If fed hiked to 5% tomorrow, 30y would invert and yield would go down.

It's not as simple as hikes lead to higher 30y yields.

Obscurity4340today at 8:27 PM

Investing in long term bond == expected interest rate hikes?

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