If you’re the size of GitHub and you’ve been running your infra for years with very little variation in traffic patterns you have a strong incentive to optimise costs for that existing behaviour.
Sure, but the new patterns are several years old at this point.
Not adapting is a choice
I am afraid thats now how infrastructure works from what I have seen. The number that really matters is QPS. For any system the QPS varies through out the day and across the week and months. Most design considerations easily absorb any 2X increase. Pick up any company and the chances are that the servers are over provisioned, no one takes chances specially with critical components.
What you have going on with Github is mix of multiple things. Traffic alone is not the cause from what little I know, it does adds to the problem for sure
1. Infrastructure is being moved to use Azure, and overall all the cloud providers are struggling with hardware at the moment (same is going on for linkedin too)
2. The core teams, the people who knew the existing systems have either been laid off or moved from Github
3. Microsoft veterans are brought in to fill the gap across the board, they are trying their best but its a lot of unknown for them