There will, at some point, be a capex winter. Companies are splurging on a huge buildout and aren't going to buy GPUs at this rate forever.

That does not mean we're all going back to artisanally hand-crafting software. That's never going to happen.

I don't say this to be mean, but you need to plan for a world where it's always summer. Maybe the valuations will collapse with OSS models but programming is never going back to normal.

Continual gains that have not stopped and there is clearly much gain to be had even if model intelligence stopped scaling. I find it borderline nasty how so many people are positively hoping for a bubble to pop or an AI winter to come so that they can feel like they can cope with the evolving world...despite all evidence to the contrary that any of these things will happen very soon at all.