alt Hacker NewsThe DRAM market is cyclical. I don’t think anyone truly knows when, but it will happen.
Fab capacity is being bought online; there’s just lead time.
Noticeably greater intelligence is being achieved at the same number of parameters (see: Qwen3.8).
I think the future will be bright, it might be a matter of time. And for tinkers, a used Epyc + DDR4 server can be great fun and epic value.
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Looks like I'll be sporting my 5800X3D + DDR4 + 9070 XT gaming box for a little while. Too bad the CPU's ST is slower than my MB Air m4.
I'm expecting it to somewhat collapse. I don't know if it'll go back to pre bubble prices (here's to hoping), but I do expect a pretty sharp decline around 2030... probably not before then.
Basically everyone that makes memory is building new fabs, meanwhile I'm not sure how much longer AI datacenter demand for ram will last. I think the decrease in AI ram demand and the new fabs will likely coincide leading to a collapse in pricing.
That is, of course, assuming the memory manufacturers don't pull their favorite trick and collude.
If it will happen in 100 years it will practically never happen (for us). Even 25 years would be a lot, it's half of a career.
Could you provide more details about the Epyc + DDR4 server?
If you don't understand that the AI driven memory boom has totally broken the cycle you are going to lose a lot of money. There is infinite demand for Intelligence and that translates directly to chips.
> The DRAM market is cyclical.
...
> I don’t think anyone truly knows when, but it will happen.
Do you know what cyclical means ... ?
100%. We're probably on the cusp of over-capacity, a glut, cheap RAM, bankruptcies, and shortages.