If there's a decrease in AI ram demand, it will not be because the models get better. Models getting better will increase RAM demand, because it grows the part of the economy that models are useful for. Classic Jevon's Paradox.
Yes, but a right now a lot of the RAM buy is for demand that doesnt exist yet. Big tech is projecting AI demand and making sure they have enough compute to fulfill that, so AI demand would have to increase even more than they expect, otherwise theyll build their datacenters and then slow down the amount they buy.
I'm expecting the drop for a couple of reasons.
For 1, AI datacenter builders have said that they have more equipment than they have places to put them. Leaving a ton of hardware shelved while you wait for datacenters to build out is bad business to say the least.
For 2, I think we are nearing saturation for the usefulness of AI. I certainly could be wrong, but I don't really foresee there to be a bunch of new exciting usages of AI that will ultimately justify the continued buildout.