alt Hacker NewsLong term it's irrelevant. The only relevant thing is that there's lots of money in chips that can do high performance inference. You see all kinds of competitor products in development or already on the market even here in the US where there are no such restrictions. Cerebras comes to mind. It's natural and expected that eventually Nvidia will either have to keep way ahead or competition will catch up with specialized products.
That doesn't mean by any stretch of the imagination Nvidia will disappear. But the entire stock market valuation, not just tech, has had me scratching my head for a while.
Cerebras "competes" with Nvidia in the same way a Vespa scooter competes with a Ford F-150. Groq and Tenstorrent are in a similar boat, ASICs don't really threaten CUDA.
Curiously, there is not a single real CUDA competitor anywhere in the world. We almost had one with OpenCL, but all of the American stakeholders abandoned it right before the crypto/AI takeoff. All of which means that Nvidia sets their own margins, exploiting American investors and taxpayers while letting China avoid their dominance. So the American economy subsumes the bulk of Nvidia's arbitrarily-priced debt, and the Chinese economy can direct SOEs to pour billions in liquid cash into real GPGPU research.
I'm an American and I'm pretty fond of Nvidia, but Jensen was right about this policy; it gives China everything they need to actually replace CUDA. It's reminiscent of America's attempts to deprive China of ARM and Texas Instruments IP, only to end up swimming in unlicensed clones after refusing to sign an IP deal.