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jawnstoday at 6:10 PM3 repliesview on HN

I got 82.4% regardless of whether I started with a portfolio value of $1M or $3M.

Something is wrong with the calculations/simulations.

If I can't trust the Quick Check, why would I trust anything else on the site?


Replies

Eric714today at 6:13 PM

That's because the withdrawals are 4%. If you have $3M, maybe lower the withdrawals to 1.25%. That would be the same as 4% of $1M.

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Eric714today at 6:11 PM

Same here

nhootantoday at 6:50 PM

That result is right. The Quick Check takes a withdrawal rate, not a dollar amount, and runs with taxes off, so it's scale invariant: $1M at 4% and $3M at 4% are the same simulation times three.

That's what lets it be instant and anonymous, since the whole answer space fits in a small grid I ship to your browser. It stops being true once taxes are on, which is what the full builder does. The page should say so. I'll add a line.