I have anecdotal experience that makes the ~$1,600 per house hold feel like an underestimate.

We purchased a Subaru Outback right around the first round of tarrifs. We were in the market for the base trim, no bells & whistles. We ended up getting the highest trim bc all the remaining base trims were post-tarrifs and and cost $3.5k more than the pre-tarrif higher trim that was already in the lot.

Mind you the Subaru outback was assembled in IL, USA so it is not just imported entirely from Japan.

And that's not considering all the other "consuming" we do (which is quite limited being outdoor ppl).