logoalt Hacker News

GodelNumberingtoday at 6:33 PM5 repliesview on HN

The price reduction comes from the cache read pricing falling from $1/M to $0.25/M, which means that Fable 5.1 now costs half of Opus's cache read costs ($0.5/M).

This gives a lot of credit to the theory that Anthropic did not get much bite on Fable at its original pricing, which in turn likely places a ceiling on LLM pricing in general.

Interestingly also, if you take away terminal-Bench-Science 0.1 results, it is hard to see ANY improvement:

Terminal-Bench 4.0: Fable 5.1 is +3.5% vs Opus 5.

GDPval-AA v2: +1.5% vs Opus 5.

OSWorld 2.0: +2.5% vs Opus 5.

Humanity's Last Exam (with tools): +1.6%

Keep in mind that this is supposed to be an entirely higher tier of a model than Opus 5. For one tier up and one version up, these are not really improvements. Probably leaves no room to place Opus 5.1 anywhere. Combined with the fact that they are selling 'readability'... Has frontier progress finally stalled?


Replies

rxyztoday at 7:32 PM

Anthropic did not get much bite because they don’t offer zero data retention with fable

6thbittoday at 7:32 PM

Huh! Yeah that feels more like an opus5.1 than a fable5.1.

nsingh2today at 7:05 PM

From Artificial Analysis cost per task, it looks like Fable 5.1 (max) is more expensive per task than Fable 5 (max)? Cache hit price went down, but the other components still add up to more.

Edit: 5.1-xhigh seems to be cheaper than 5-max, and 5.1-xhigh has a higher index score than 5-max. Also interesting that Fable 5.1 (high) is comparable to Opus 5 (max), but nearly half the price.

https://artificialanalysis.ai/models#cost-tabs

show 1 reply
supern0vatoday at 7:22 PM

>Has frontier progress finally stalled?

It wouldn't surprise me if we start to see minimal performance gains from incremental changes to base models. It seems like the gains from the Opus 4.5+ incremental updates were a result of Anthropic learning a lot about post-training, the gains from RLVR, etc.

If new post-training techniques are seeing diminishing returns, we could just be back to waiting for new large pretraining runs at larger sizes for gains (even if those ultimately end up getting distilled down into smaller models because the economics for serving anything larger than Fable isn't practical).

Tepixtoday at 6:57 PM

DeepSeek V4 Pro cache read pricing is $0.022 (offpeak) and

DeepSeek V4 Flash cache read pricing is $0.007

Makes it super affordable!