The thing about bubbles is that everyone who thinks they’re going to pop look crazy until they pop.

And to be clear, a bubble popping doesn’t mean that AI goes away forever.

What it does mean is that we’ll see some kind of economic crash or recession, and we’ll probably see at least one big company fail or go bankrupt/restructure.

OpenAI is the company in most obvious peril.

I happen to think that Nvidia is in a more perilous position than they appear. Their hardware advancement pace is relatively weak and they’re in a crypto-like hardware bubble where they’re one technology breakthrough away from a complete collapse in demand for their AI data center solutions. They’re also doing a lot of sketchy hardware financing schemes.