Think of it like one big distributed system. OpenAI is down, so people migrate to Claude, now this one gets overloaded and goes down, etc.
So not a coincidence, one went down first and users migrated causing further DOS. At least that's my guess.
If everyone has the same "Use X or else Y or else Z" cascading list... That reminds me of "The Power of Two Choices in Randomized Load Balancing" (1991) [0] paper, where writeups and visualizations occasionally get posted to HN.
In short, you can get pretty good outcomes for a low cost by picking 2 random alternates, then going with whatever one measures as healthier.
I find it hard to believe that enough people would flock to from Claude and Chat to Grok to cause an outage. I feel like Gemini is the dominant release valve in this case especially for enterprise.
Especially considering memory/gpu/compute are scarce so these services are likely running with very little buffer.
This is what Tibo posted on twitter in response
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Domino_effect
Edit: Updated per valleyer's suggestion.
It'd be funny if this is true because that'd prolly mean nobody is touching Gemini even as a fallback.