alt Hacker News99.9% with the right harness? Ok, we're at AGI then.
Prediction:
We will now see the goalposts moved towards "well, a human costs less / is more efficient" - that will prevail for a few months until they come up with some other test that humans can do easily but is hard for the bots. This cycle will continue for ever and in 25 years, despite having hyper intelligent embodied robots or whatever, we'll still be arguing about if the singularity is here and if we're at AGI for the rest of my life most likely.
Replies
The goal moving is by design, that’s why they use something as ill defined as AGI
We were already there with Opus 5 -> https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/nvidias-harness-hit-100-arc-a...
Then why is unemployment around 4%? You believe we have AGI and yet it can’t do anyone’s job?
That’s because AGI, like a lot of terms, has no meaning besides what each individual subjectively projects onto it.
> We will now see the goalposts moved
It's already happening :)
They explain it here: https://openai.com/index/how-two-settings-tripled-our-arc-ag...
TLDR: The official ARC harness throws away old context and reasoning. No real-world harness is this bad, the model has to re-learn the game repeatedly. OpenAI basically just added standard compaction. Their harness is still "general".