alt Hacker NewsOK, let's say we get continuous learning today, what does tomorrow look like?
I won't argue that AI can do some learning as context sizes are still terribly small and expensive to iterate.
What does the world like in a week? A month? A year?
How long before these models drift to their own languages? To their own set of morals? To their own alignment?
None of these questions are answered and I'd rather stay at AGI-lite until they are as having a billion agents going off in their own directions seems like a recipe for disaster.
With current models and their general knowledge self learning just seems like you'd have a few ASIs crop up really quick.
Replies
I also think it's moving the goalpost significantly. If you asked me what AGI looks like in 2024, I would have said "smarter on tasks that can be done via text than the average random human you'd meet in a NY bodega", and by that standard, it's long in the rear view mirror.
Now I think people are asking a different question, which is "better than any human at any task that can be done via text", which imo is superhuman, not artificial general intelligence.
Yeah, I'm fascinated by AGI, but not very enthusiastic about it. I've yet to see anyone, notably not even the people trying to build it, articulate a future where it seems to be a net positive for society.
If it's a choice between everyone living on food stamps or reducing the infinite prime gap to 140, then I guess I'll be happy with a prime gap of whatever it was yesterday.
If/when we do eventually build a more animal-like true human level AGI - build a brain, not just a language model, then potentially we'd be able to build in some of the safeguards that millions of years of co-evolution have built into ourselves, but I expect that is still decades away, and then it'd be capable of doing even more jobs!
The best AI outcome I could wish for is where it is extremely heavily regulated, and AI replacing any human job paying under $1M/yr is banned.