alt Hacker NewsTao is saying that there is very little insight from something like an LLM counterexample (e.g. Jacobian conjecture counterexample he investigated further on his blog) - you don't learn much about the subject and _why_ a conjecture was true or false from an LLM giving a counterexample. That's why he wrote the blog post - to analyse what the counterexample says about the subject.
Tao does not disbelieve the counterexample (it's seemingly easy enough for him to verify it is a counterexample).
Parent is saying something very different - they're saying they literally don't have any faith that this is a proof. Given its size, it could just be a bunch of completely useless statements that do pass the type checker.
You're putting a lot of words in my mouth. What I'm saying is that whether or not it's a proof, it's useless: it does not improve human knowledge, because the only thing able to consume 10MB of Lean to build upon it is another LLM that's going to build a 50MB piece of shit.
It's very much likely a proof. It's also completely useless.