alt Hacker NewsI don't see this being a blip, for multiple reasons.
A) the uptime matrix between Github, OpenAI, and Anthropic means that we've faced multiple entire days of not being able to ship org-wide due to our reliance on automated code review and other tooling. Every cloud service baked into our CI pipeline becomes a point of failure. We can't live without AI anymore, but it too often either directly or indirectly gets interferes with our ability to ship, and I don't see this improving any time soon.
B) Locally hosted AI has serious advantages with regard to PII/sensitive data management, and there's not much the frontier models can do to overcome this. There are so many things I want to build and let loose in a sensitive data environment but can't due to data governance around frontier models.
C) Anthropic and OpenAI cannot keep prices low forever. They're still burning insane amounts of cash and at some point, they're going to have to transition from growth mode to profit mode. They're already juicing their sales pipelines to the max with introductory pricing and other things to get people in the door. But those are all short-term online marketing plays.
Totally hear you on point a/b!
I think ultimately the folks with the purses won’t care enough about a for it to be taken seriously, even if it’s an engineering bottleneck.
B definitely has scope but still smaller than I’d expect. When I was an intern at yelp, I was migrating us off internal credit card management to Braintree/stripe. No one would have imagined outsourcing that in early 2000s. There’s a long tail of stuff that you can’t sent to a 3rd party; but for most use cases it’ll suffice.
For c, true; but this is expensive for everyone, including the Chinese model companies that are trying to undercut Open Ai / anthropic. In the nth degree, i think the field will bring the cost down to the place where it’s manageable (see the existence of the cheap Chinese models). The real question is the $$ spent on pushing the research forward at scale.