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throwa356262today at 8:00 AM1 replyview on HN

My reasoning is that we have seen multiple small labs come out of nowhere and create impressive models.


Replies

aurareturntoday at 8:03 AM

Impressive doesn't mean sustainable.

We're also seeing behemoths like Google and Meta both fail to keep up with OpenAI and Anthropic. Microsoft has given up on SOTA training. Loads of once promising LLM training companies are no longer relevant at the SOTA stage such as Cohere, Mistral.

I've said this countless times but SOTA LLM market looks like a classic monopoly/duopoly market over time. Each generation requires magnitudes more resources to train and you can only compete if you've made enough money on your previous generation.