> There is a caveat that they "can't rule out" the possibility that Tristan's Codex data could have been part of the training set of the new model, though it is described as "unlikely"

This is the lynchpin behind everything, and I would describe it as "likely". Since I am not employed by any party to this dispute, my 1 opinion is more trustworthy than OpenAI blog poster's 1 opinion.