alt Hacker NewsI'm pretty baffled by the degree of skepticism expressed here in response to some of Jacob's claims.
After the events of the summer it feels like it takes a lack of imagination to not see a few plausible routes to disaster. It may be reasonable to believe these outcomes are not very likely or that we can stop before going too far (I tend to disagree). But I can't imagine doubting that the capabilities will soon be there to realize some of those paths.
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Imo such tends to break down into two psychosis:
Not invented here; if I can’t figure it out no one can
Or plain old lack of grasp of the material so no ability to follow necessary train of thought to appropriate conclusions
Similar in lacking context but different in how that lack of context is expressed
Are the models improving? Because I am not seeing it. I have been trying Astra for a few quantifiable tasks in my codebase and performance wise, it's pretty similar to sol 5.6. Now when it comes to expressing the problem/solution, holy Christ, what a mess the writing has become. It is on the level of Opus 5. Now when it comes to burning money, Astra is just insane. With a $100/month subscription, you can easily burn through your weekly "allowance" in a morning.
Needless to say, for practical purposes am back to 5.6/Opus 4.6-4.8. But hey, maybe I am not smart enough to use LLMs?
I can't help but think the most plausible scenarios are the ones that have a little less machine supremacy and a little more human stupidity. The Matrix is less plausible than WarGames.