alt Hacker NewsI'm not saying they are crazy, I'm saying their predictions have a record of not being accurate, and thus give them no weight compared to others'.
In any case, if Altman really does believe it is an existential threat, he must be a misanthrope as he now opposes heavy handed government regulation, unlike in 2015 when he was the only game in town. It's almost like he doesn't actually believe it and just wanted regulator capture.
Before OpenAI was ever even founded, way before any regulatory capture plausible claims:
"Development of superhuman machine intelligence (SMI) [1] is probably the greatest threat to the continued existence of humanity. There are other threats that I think are more certain to happen (for example, an engineered virus with a long incubation period and a high mortality rate) but are unlikely to destroy every human in the universe in the way that SMI could." -Sam Altman
Dario discussing AGI Existential Risk in 2014 before OpenAI and Anthropic: https://intelligence.org/2014/01/13/miri-strategy-conversati...
Both companies have deluded themselves into thinking the arms race is going to happen anyway and they need to rush to it first, as if somehow that helps.