Example 6 is a good one. Iran attacked water infra in the US recently and maybe they would have done a “better” job (from their point of view) had they used Fable.

The “worst case” with 6 is potentially very bad but I think we are currently using advanced AI models to harden systems and patch vulnerabilities more aggressively than anyone is trying to bring down the whole power grid (for example).

I think it’s a potentially harmful case but my take is defensive capabilities are scaling as fast as offensive capabilities but defense is being implemented faster than anyone is going on offense?

Example 7 is Russia and Ukraine right now according to public information. It sounds like entirely autonomous weapons are deployed to the battlefield already. I put this in the “not likely to be a widespread problem” category for now.