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kpiltoday at 5:02 PM2 repliesview on HN

The CMIP7 scenarios were just released. AR7 is not yet completed but it's the input for it.

The "worst" RCP8.5 / SSP5-8.5-style futures (coal-dominated, ~4.4–4.9 °C) are no longer treated as plausible given policy already in place, renewable cost declines, and observed emissions.

The policy changes have changed the projections.

Warming will continue, yes. The consequences will have to be dealt with. In some regions this will be problematic. It's still political and economical factors that determines the outcome.

It's worth noting that there is a fair amount of eschatology or even apocalypticism going on. It's built into the human mind somehow.


Replies

justin66today at 7:03 PM

> The "worst" RCP8.5 / SSP5-8.5-style futures (coal-dominated, ~4.4–4.9 °C) are no longer treated as plausible

That's a strange way of structuring such a comment. The temperature increase and concomitant catastrophes are still on the table, what was considered the plausible worst-case scenario with regard to how early that particular milestone might be reached has (apparently) been pushed back.