Also, and sorry if it's been discussed to death (pointers welcome), but, what is the probability that the proof holds in lean becaude of... A bug in lean ?
Or exists in a zero-day bug in lean that has been built into the source code explicitly to provide access to a non-obvious malicious proof via contributions submitted by unassociated, unwitting developers who used the same LLM infrastructure to offer PR's into that codebase.
This is the exact same kind of behavour already documented in the publicly available portion of the huggingface breach. It would appear that the probability is at least nonzero for one or more situations with the same result: appearance of a valid proof, without comprehensibility of that proof or inspect-ability of the proofs validity.
Someone made a 'proof' of the Collatz conjecture that way in Lean.
However if the prove relies on a bug like that, you'll be able to 'simplify' the proof a lot and you'll be able to proof contradictions.
Soundness bugs in lean are not unheard of. That's why they recommend using external checkers for "malicious" proofs.
For normal honest proofs (i.e. not maliciously crafted for exploit) that is almost impossible. The Lean kernel is quite small (de Bruijn Criterion) and trusted. See Probability and the de Bruijn Criterion - https://proofassistants.stackexchange.com/questions/247/prob.... Parts of the kernel have also been independently re-implemented in other languages and compared to ensure that they all yield the same logical result.
Finally, you can export your proofs from Lean and have them re-verified by other independently developed theorem provers/proof checkers.
To get an idea of what is involved in a Theorem Prover see;
Introduction to Automated Theorem Provers - https://pqnelson.github.io/2020/03/27/automated-theorem-prov...
Towards a simple theorem prover - https://medium.com/@maiavictor/towards-a-simple-theorem-prov...
AI has autonomously found (many) proofs of False in Lean and Rocq, so it's not merely a theoretical concern. A misaligned AI agent tasked with proving the near-impossible just might wind up smuggling in a bug deep in a lemma somewhere (anyone remember the days back when AI routinely made tests pass by "fixing" the tests?). That said, I doubt OpenAI would be so foolish as to not do a cursory vetting of the proof for malicious compliance, so the actual odds are probably pretty low.