> I doubt OpenAI would be so foolish as to not do a cursory vetting

Significant evidence exists that they have in the past been at least, if not more, foolish as to not perform even minimal not-approaching the boundary of cursory vetting of several significant and well known failure modes with far greater risk of reputational damage than getting an esoteric math solution falsely claimed as successful.

So that doubt appears baseless in light of known operating conditions at OpenAI, and the estimate of the actual odds is probably an order of magnitude away from reality.