Compute has already lost value for me. Six months ago I thought you needed a 1T+ model to be useful coding. Now I am able to get by just fine with a 27b model.

I see two factors converging to cause a collapse of this house of cards:

1. People are realizing that what they need isn't more general intelligence, it's more specialization. A small but well tuned coding model, a small but well tuned customer service model, a small but well tuned document explorer.

2. Specialized hardware - TPUs and NPUs - especially coming out of china. The latest GLM model was trained and runs on Huawei hardware. Nvidia is only worth so much because they are the biggest and best provider of the kind of compute needed to run llms, but the export bans mean china has a lot of incentive to topple that monopoly.

The amount of compute we need to do the things llms do is falling rapidly, the number of people who can provide that compute is rising.

> they would have to become insolvent in a way that makes compute lose value

They would have to go insolvent in a way that hits Nvidia revenue. Those are related by distinct factors, a difference that may matter in a crisis.

> if OpenAI can’t use the compute, someone else can

This is the big point IMO since I have never given $1 to OpenAI but I subscribe to Vidu and Typecast, and have given money to Kling, Hailou, and even Gemini in the form of Google Workspace.

So these other guys have products and use cases, which OpenAI has never been able to crack beyond ChatGPT. And ChatGPT was never worth paying for, IMO.

If OpenAI dies, it's not because there is no market for the technology (which is all NVIDIA cares about), it's more that OpenAI doesn't know how to run a relevant technology company.

They were given everything, not just NVIDIA's billions of dollars and credit backing but all the first-mover advantage, all the respect and credibility early on, so it's really sad to see them unable to develop interesting products and turn a profit in a space they helped pioneer, while so many others are making money with the tech all around them.

NVIDIA is fine. The technology will continue to improve and NVIDIA will stay at the center. OpenAI is fucked - knew it when they retired Sora to focus on text-to-text and coding (a largely solved problem).

Granted OpenAI going insolvent

All the "frontier" AI companies *are* currently insolvent. They have never been anything other than cash burning machines.

The only way they keep the lights on and the doors open is by borrowing money --- and epic amounts of it. If those operating the cash spigot decide to turn it off, all AI companies will likely be similarly affected --- and so will Nvidia.

OpenAI expects to burn through more cash between 2024 and 2029 than Uber, Tesla, Amazon and Spotify did - combined - before those companies started making money

https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20251205243/thi...