>oAI isn't anywhere near close to fucked as long as their models are head and shoulders above even the very best open models in terms of tool calling and rock solid stability/reliability for agents/coding harnesses

That's already not the case today. If you sat me in front of an LLM and told me to figure out if I'm working with K3 or Astra, I could probably do it, but it would take some work to be certain.