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nwah1yesterday at 11:00 PM3 repliesview on HN

Given that they paused signups for their 20x Max plan, your assessment seems overoptimistic.

Their new Broadcom chips seem cool, and they had a nice model release with Astra. But, that doesn't mean they've solved the profitability question during an era of rapidfire open-weight model releases, extreme memory shortages, and intense political pushback.


Replies

vessenesyesterday at 11:25 PM

I think that implies they're seeing unusual new subscription demand, yes? That's how I'd read it, not least because I worked through four resets this week on Astra, which is un unbelievable amount more inference than I've wanted from openAI really ever, and the highest ratio vs. claude since opus 4 at the very least, probably farther back.

I think there are few moats in the engineering use case, and a single new model can absolutely drive compute demand.

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NewJazzyesterday at 11:10 PM

I agree with some of your points, but wouldn't memory shortages actually work in OpenAI's favor? Part of the reason for the shortage is them prepurchasing hardware, so higher prices for memory and other chips would make self-hosting and competing inference providers less competitive.

blahgeektoday at 1:05 AM

Right but I think it’s due to the shortage of chips (and data centers), instead of shortage of money