Have you worked on large (>500KLOC) codebases with an agent?

Yes. But keep in mind KLOCs are not easily comparable across languages. Java is notoriously verbose. A 500KLOC codebase in Java would usually be half that size in Rust. If your argument is that large codebases makes life harder for agents, you should go with a less verbose language.

I'm not sure what "manual optimization" means (isn't it a bit of an oxymoron when the agent does it?), but if your agent has the proper tools (e.g. ast-grep, rg, semble) it can deal with large codebases. Would the agent create slop? Yes. But it wouldn't be worse on the slop that humans created on every moderately-sized Java project I've worked on.

> in fact, agent-written code in a low-level language gets pretty slow well below that size

I've never seen this happening. I've seen agents writing suboptimal Rust code (e.g. copies instead of Cow). But while this occassionally happens with Rust, I've never seen an agent optimizing for Java where necessary (e.g. using object pools to avoid GC churn). Java is not magic.