alt Hacker NewsAll of the following are true:
- They have internal models that still show there's gas in the tank, in terms of improvements
- Open models are eroding their customer base on the low end of the curve, & also you need not use Astra Max to classify images.
- The true demand for high-intelligence tasks is lower than what they need to justify their spending
- It would be wonderful for them to kick up a scare & give reasons as to why high-int open models should be regulated out of existence, opening up the lower end for them to take again
- Setting up an oligopoly for themselves gives them a captive audience, just like it did for (insurance, banking, telecoms, etc.) via regulatory capture
The demand for human-level intelligence is obviously at least the same order of magnitude as all office jobs combined.
I'm personally skeptical of LLMs getting there without at least one new invention. But it's also empirically clear that the pace continues to increase, even if we ignore that exponential growth is the default in economics in general.