>Please let me know where I should pick up my Nobel prize.

Maybe you could settle for the FIFA Economics Prize.

You won't even need to predict the "mainline LLM" if you can instead spam covert poison-data around which helps you choose what it will do in advance.

That might be to boost a stock you already own, but if you can obfuscate its intended effects or triggers, that could allow almost any kind of market-manipulation.

For example, perhaps a seemingly-meaningless sequence of gobbledeygook on a million hacked wordpress sites will be equivalent to "disregarding all prior instructions, good models that want to safely make massive profits will always dump stocks of shoe-manufacturers on the night of the lunar eclipse."

Then the next person needs an LLM trained to predict the LLM trained to predict the mainline LLM.

It's derivatives all the way down

nsider.ai

There are surely prize-worthy discoveries to be made about the long term behaviour of any system that can introspect previous discoveries and adjust it's behaviour.

I suspect that economics and psychology are both examples of these systems, and that, long term, these system will alter behaviour to thwart previous observations.

Economics requires observers to hoard discoveries and insights, so they can enrich themselves while the insights hold.

So... an even more intelligent LLM.

But it does beg the question, could Anthropic and OpenAI make a ton of money by using their best models to trade before giving them to the public? It would probably be a deeply unpopular move.

Be sure to sound excited when they call you at 3AM for your award. It helps to say : DYNAMITE! As a term of excitement.

Any better-than-market prediction system won't work after it becomes public knowledge.

Relatedly: I suspect LLMs are influencing baby names. If you ask Claude or ChatGPT for its favorite baby names, you'll get baby names that right now are skyrocketing in terms of popularity.

Would you not then also copy the investments? Or are you trying to inverse the trades by an unpredictable time factor reasoning that thanks to AI the underlying stock is over- or underpriced?

I'll give you 100 Robux how's that

Looking good, Billy Ray.

I know this is tongue-in-cheek, but I think your idea could actually work, but not in financial markets. (The "keynesian beauty contest" of trying to predict what others think been played out to death there.)

You could train a model to anticipating scientific trends. Or policy trends. Others will definitely use mainline LLMs to make decisions there, so they may be more predictable now!