alt Hacker NewsWhile time-series forecasting models aren't well suited for this, I would argue that humans aren't either.
Obviously the best humans are better than average, but this isn't all that surprising to me?
While time-series forecasting models aren't well suited for this, I would argue that humans aren't either.
Obviously the best humans are better than average, but this isn't all that surprising to me?
Right. What's really surprising is how much better the best are. Human superforecasters, and prediction markets are surprisingly accurate too.
We could live in a world where things are much more chaotic, and the best humans (or AIs) would only be slightly better than chance. Evidently the world we live in is pretty darn predictable.