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margalabargalatoday at 3:35 PM12 repliesview on HN

Could this be considered a good thing?

The energy being released in these many tiny earthquakes was always going to exist in this location. Much better to release it slowly via thousands of tiny earthquakes than all at once. Better to have 10k magnitude 3 quakes than one magnitude 7.


Replies

sbuttgereittoday at 4:13 PM

Geologic systems are more complex than this. Analyzing something like this as though it were a single system is wrought with the dangers of miscalculation.

You could locally release stresses on an incremental, short term basis this way in a local system, while at the same time increasing stresses on nearby systems which could fail even more spectacularly, especially if the increasing stresses are being moved from a less dangerous system to a more dangerous system.

I'm not suggesting the above is true in this case, but that you need to cast a pretty wide net with increasingly unknown (and perhaps unknowable) variables as you start to inject real changes into a local system and try to predict what those changes will actually do.

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booitoday at 3:48 PM

It's logarithmic so you'd need more like 30,000 magnitude 3 earthquakes to equal the energy of a magnitude 7. I don't think it's clear this is better. You can also make the argument that this may trigger the large earthquake that might not have happened for a long time.

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andy_ppptoday at 3:38 PM

It can go either way, you might get a relief of pressure or you might get an increased destabilisation in the region.

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jjk166today at 4:35 PM

If you have an anvil hanging over your head, the potential energy that would kill you already exists. Slowly lowering the anvil makes sense. Damaging the rope holding the anvil doesn't.

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xvedejastoday at 5:29 PM

At least naturally, faults release almost all their energy in the few largest events. You never see enough small earthquakes that you would "release slowly" that amount of energy. It would really need to be several orders of magnitude of more energy being released slowly.

bob1029today at 4:24 PM

We set off explosives to control avalanche risk.

brightballtoday at 4:43 PM

How does the energy for the nuke itself factor into the equation though?

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micromacrofoottoday at 4:12 PM

We are not even remotely close to being able to predict this in a way to apply it reliably. Plate tectonics and volcanology are incredibly difficult to forecast anything short-term in.

samudrijantoday at 5:05 PM

Yeah, no.

johnsmith1840today at 3:42 PM

[flagged]

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