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alex43578today at 5:48 AM1 replyview on HN

Most criminals do not stop after they get caught the first time.

I can't find shoplifting-specific statistics, but then again, essentially nobody is being jailed for only shoplifting anyways, so it's a moot point in a conversation about incarceration.

On a broader discussion of the importance of incarceration in reducing continued victimization of society:

"In many states, up to 80 percent of the youth who are incarcerated are rearrested within 3 years of release" - https://csgjusticecenter.org/publications/reducing-juvenile-...

"According to the National Institute of Justice, almost 44 percent of the recently released return before the end of their first year out. About 68 percent of 405,000 prisoners released in 30 states in 2005 were arrested for a new crime within three years of their release from prison, and 77 percent were arrested within five years, and by year nine that number reaches 83 percent.

The solution for your example of minor property crimes is reducing the cost of incarceration, not letting them continue commit property crimes and therefore offload the costs of society's failure to police criminals onto citizens.

To your point of "how do we make them stop", incarceration/forced hospitalization is ironically the answer to some of your supposed "causes" of crime, like mental illness and drug addiction. Look to a place like California or Seattle to see the impact of these approaches, where every imaginable alternative has been tried to control homelessness, drug addiction, and nuisance crime, far exceeding the cost of just locking them up.


Replies

shaknatoday at 9:09 AM

Recidivism in the USA is higher than almost every other nation [0], at about 65-70%.

You're absolutely right that they don't stop, the first time, in the US. However, the cause of that same recidivism, is overwhelmingly correlated to a lack of support on leaving. Rehabilitation is in the name - habeo, to have or possess.

Why do people reoffend? Because currently, they're fucked. Background checks in everything, screw them over. They can't get work, they can't rent, and so, when all other options are off the table, is it actually a surprise, that they reoffend?

It'd be a hell of a lot cheaper, not to lock them up, and not expose a first-time offender to a black hole where everyone says the world would be better off with them dead.

See for example, Norway, with the lowest recidivism rate in the world [1], where it actually is true, that most do not reoffend.

[0] https://bjs.ojp.gov/topics/recidivism-and-reentry

[1] https://digitalcommons.coastal.edu/bridges/vol10/iss10/2/