alt Hacker NewsThat's exactly what "prediction markets" sell themselves as. Super-predictors.
Insiders have an edge and can in theory shape the overall distribution of bets such that the real world outcomes are priced in better.
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conmod278 • today at 1:49 PM
"There are three ways to learn. The most noble is by thinking and getting to the truth yourself. The second, which is still pretty good, is by imitating those who do. And the third one is through pain."
In prediction markets, imitation is the best policy
Yes but in this case, tens or hundreds of people know the outcome months in advance. I'm very surprised that the market doesn't immediately converge to 100% for one candidate. The winner is not really a forecastable 'random event' in that by the time the show is airing, it's not being pulled from a distribution.